Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 2.006776 2.109296 2.218798 2.345305 2.488542 2.647078 2.837837
2025-07-20 1.944035 2.081328 2.234245 2.419636 2.641905 2.904917 3.248241
2025-07-27 1.872068 2.028280 2.207142 2.431295 2.711364 3.060161 3.547075
2025-08-03 1.811805 1.980795 2.178441 2.432729 2.761424 3.189215 3.824346
2025-08-10 1.732645 1.904559 2.108236 2.374585 2.726397 3.197779 3.928202
2025-08-17 1.673968 1.849149 2.059157 2.337973 2.713880 3.232016 4.070516
2025-08-24 1.629235 1.808093 2.024917 2.316998 2.718781 3.288597 4.253761
2025-08-31 1.599902 1.784285 2.010487 2.320041 2.755421 3.393250 4.534050
2025-09-07 1.575749 1.765546 2.001054 2.328299 2.798783 3.511235 4.862375
2025-09-14 1.511369 1.693885 1.920513 2.235711 2.689486 3.378058 4.688834
2025-09-21 1.502641 1.692385 1.930851 2.268022 2.765358 3.549163 5.151848
2025-09-28 1.456422 1.641531 1.874593 2.204944 2.694036 3.469428 5.073463
2025-10-05 1.444712 1.637166 1.882751 2.237422 2.777602 3.674508 5.715690
2025-10-12 1.446598 1.650059 1.913979 2.304100 2.920264 4.009194 6.871397
2025-10-19 1.428391 1.635665 1.907195 2.314330 2.972260 4.183969 7.729509
2025-10-26 1.408403 1.618074 1.895040 2.315421 3.008470 4.333399 8.650063
2025-11-02 1.371836 1.577255 1.849129 2.262956 2.948421 4.270688 8.699327
2025-11-09 1.343512 1.546792 1.816770 2.229830 2.919913 4.273309 9.052160
2025-11-16 1.321251 1.523901 1.794283 2.210806 2.914750 4.327007 9.713194
2025-11-23 1.307096 1.511535 1.786149 2.213490 2.948288 4.474717 11.110133
2025-11-30 1.295161 1.501796 1.781305 2.220897 2.990774 4.652647 13.186383
2025-12-07 1.255580 1.453565 1.720265 2.137080 2.859110 4.382176 11.435495
2025-12-14 1.252177 1.454720 1.730045 2.166332 2.940619 4.660441 14.866664